Prediction systems

Datathon Air Sofia Solution – Team Teljapenosss


— Team Teljapenosss Team Members —

Jalapeno (Nasiba Zokirova)

Team Mentor: petya-par


Business Understanding

The levels of air pollution allegedly caused by solid fuel heating and motor vehicle traffic are ever growing in the City of Sofia.

The primary economical impact for the City of Sofia was a ruling by the European Court of Justice against the City. Further, there are secondary financial effects such as reduced tax income due to negative effects on businesses caused by air pollution are proven in numerous studies. For example, Hsu et. al. (1) showed that there is reduced consumer spent when air pollution is high and studies by the OECD (2) show that crop yields decline in polluted air. Finally, there are tertiary effects caused by the general increase of welfare costs due to the long-term health impacts polluted air has on humans.

Being able to predict air pollution is an important step to better understand the factors that influence it. This will help to derive actionable initiatives to reduce air pollution in the future and prevent e.g. further rulings by the European Court of Justice against the City of Sofia.


— Data Understanding —

Will be updated soon.

— Data Preparation —


  1. 5 Air station- and citizen science air quality measurements
  2. Meteorological measurements
  3. Topography data
  4. Additional data
    1. Sensor values from the last 5 minutes from registered stations

Data preparation steps

  1. EDA
  2. Correct instrumental biases caused by different measurement methods and influence external factors (e.g. meteorological) of Air station- and citizen science air quality measurements
  3. Integrate the four given datasets

— Modeling–

The following modelling techniques are currently being evaluated:

  • Baselining: Simple average model
  • Bayesian ridge to predict 24h average concentrations of PM10 for each station
  • Holtz linear trend
  • Holt-Winters method

— Evaluation–

Will be updated soon.

— Deployment —

Tableau topographical map on Tableau Public



(1)  Poor Air Quality Costs Businesses Millions

(2) Big Data Para Combatir el Cambio Climático

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