The NSI case – Predicting Household Budgets

by team Lemurs

Team

Tsvetan (cecopld)
Radoslav (rdimitrov)
(mr-reliable)
(khadeer)

Business Understanding

The survey’s data on expenditure of household according to COICOP (quarterly and annually) are used for the purposes of producing macroeconomic statistics – National Accounts and Consumer Price Index. In order to optimize the cost of carrying out the survey, the NSI is considering a change in the periodicity of the Household Budget Survey from yearly to once on every five years.

Data Understanding

In order to resolve the case official aggregated survey data are provided. In addition data on: population structure by gender and age are provided (from current demographic statistics), population by economic activity and education (from the Labour Force Survey), data from the Annual statistics on employment and labour costs survey and data on the average number of retired persons and the average pension amount per pensioner (source “Statistical reference book of the NSI”).

Public data, metadata and methodology on HBS are available to all users on the web site of NSI under “Household incomes, expenditures and consumption“: http://www.nsi.bg/en/node/5640 , as well as in the Information system INFOSTAT: https://infostat.nsi.bg/infostat/pages/module.jsf?x_2=27.
SRZ_GBS I obrazov_LFS.xlsx

– Sheet LFS – Population, labour force, employed, unemployed and persons not in the labour force, aged 15 years and over by level of education – 2010-2017 (thousands);

– Sheet STZ – Annual average wages and salaries of the employees under labour contract
Pensions_2011_2017.xlsx – Number of pensioners, number of pensions and average pension of one pensioner by quarters and by years (2011 – 2017)

**Data Preparation**

**Modeling**

**Evaluation**

**Deployment**

**Used Libraries and Technologies**

**Sources**