Prediction systems

Datathon Telenor Solution – Analysing and Predicting Delays in Mobile Data Connectivity

“You know nothing, Jon Snow ……”
is what Ygritte yells to Jon.

Here our situation is also the same as we know nothing about the TELENOR case until we have seen the dataset.

At first, When we heard about the Datathon as beginners, we were very excited to take apart in it.
At finally we received our datasets and here’s our first challenge to import the dataset into the programming platforms,
As we have faced some hurdles to import the dataset as the size of the dataset is around 4GB which has taken some time and put us in the situation :

What we don’t know is what usually gets us killed………………………– Petyr Baelish

we have mentioned above line to express our feeling that we don’t know what’s in the dataset but we want to explore through that.
At last, we are ready to Analysis What do Game of Thrones and Telecoms Have in Common?

At first, when we have gone through the dataset, We have noticed that the Telenor data contains 16 exciting columns with
30091754 jolted rows

When we have gone through the first analysis, we came to know that how complicated the data is, it contains many interesting aspects which we have done through the Exploratory Data Analysis.

Here our main challenge is to predict the fails in the next four days
At First, we have done Exploratory data analysis
(i) Top 10 ravens with fails :
RAVEN_NAME
Brass raven Birdy
Brown raven Ruby
Yellow raven Rio
Blue raven Axel
Razzle Dazzle Rose raven Cleo
Cadmium Red raven Bubba
Vain And Lazy raven Polly
Fearful Carrion raven Gizmo
Blast Off Bronze raven Zazu
Loving raven Maxwell

(ii) Top 10 ravens without fails:

RAVEN_NAME
Metallic Sunburst raven Polly
Green Sheen raven Azul
Less Combative raven Zazu
Weak raven Buddy
Copper raven Tweety
Spectral Yellow raven Zazu
Mythical raven Tiki
Cyber Grape raven Faith
Mysterious And Venerable raven Bubba
Shadow Blue raven Sammy

(iii) The family with most fails :

FAMILY_NAME
Targerian

(iv) The family with least fails :

FAMILY_NAME
Baelish

(v) The family member with most fails :

MEMBER_NAME
Petyr Baelish

(vi) The family member with least fails :

MEMBER_NAME
Euron

After the EDA we need to predict the future four days of delays in mobile data connectivity. To predict the four days delays we use Time Series analysis.

In Time Series Analysis we used three algorithms ARIMA, Simple Exponential Analysis, Recurrent Neural Networks.

We fitted the model with ARIMA and predict the failures of four days and fitted the model using another algorithm Simple Exponential Analysis.

And We used Recurrent Neural Networks for Prediction of failures.

After Fitting the three models using three different algorithms we evaluated by splitting the data into train and test.

We evaluated the best fit model by using the Root Mean Square Error. By considering the RMSE values of the three models, the model with the least RMSE value is taken as the best fit model.

In this case, considering the mobile failure dataset, RNN(Recurrent Neural Network)has the least RMSE value.

So, RNN is taken as the best fit model to predict the future four days of mobile data delays.

Based on the RNN algorithm the prediction of delays for the next four days based on the dataset
are 973776,973725,973674,973623 for 5 ,6,7,8, August 2018 respectively.

3
votes

9 thoughts on “Datathon Telenor Solution – Analysing and Predicting Delays in Mobile Data Connectivity

  1. 3
    votes

    Team, for any “scientific” article and for anybody who has access to data, whole process should be repetable, i.e. anyone should be able to take your code/work and get same end results. Good part is that you already presented lot of code you used, but bad part is that it is either attachment (not clearly visible process, or embeded as picture). If you are able, I would like that you add those as textual part of your article for easier verification.

    1. 1
      votes

      Thank you for your suggestion sir.
      we have updated our article with the screenshots containing codes and added some additional analysis on the data and predicted the future failures for the given four days

  2. 1
    votes

    Looks very well done and detailed. I can recommend to add some more info about why is RNN better in this case then other methods, and maybe to add some results from others also in the article.

    1. 1
      votes

      Thank you, sir
      We have predicted using three algorithms ARIMA, Simple Exponential Model And RNN.
      We have observed the Root mean square error for three algorithms. In our data case observation, we got 31 days mobile data delays. We divided the data into 27 days for train data and 4 days for test data. We predicted the time series for three algorithms and compared RMSE values.RNN gives us the least Root mean square error. So, compared to other algorithms, we choose RNN for this data case.
      Moreover, Recurrent Neural Networks is a Deep learning algorithm which gives pretty good results for Sequential Time Series Analysis.

    1. 1
      votes

      Thank you for the compliment, sir
      we had a very good experience when analyzing the Telenor data,
      and we are pleased to hear from you
      and looking further to have this kind of interaction with you again.

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